INTERACTIVE TOOL

P(doom) Calculator

"P(doom)" is the probability that advanced AI leads to catastrophe for humanity. It isn't one number. It's the product of several uncertain judgments. Move the sliders below to set your own view on each, and the calculator combines them into a single estimate you can compare against leading researchers.

1. AGI is actually built this century 75%

Probability that AI systems reach broadly human-level, strategically capable general intelligence before 2100.

2. Alignment isn't reliably solved in time 50%

Given AGI, the probability we fail to reliably align it with human intentions before it is deployed at scale.

3. A misaligned system gets real power 60%

Given unsolved alignment, the probability that a misaligned system is deployed in high-stakes, power-granting conditions.

4. It causes catastrophe, not a contained failure 50%

Given a powerful misaligned system, the probability the failure is civilization-scale rather than caught and contained.

5. Humanity cannot recover 70%

Given a catastrophe, the probability it is permanent, extinction or irreversible loss of human control over the future.

How this is calculated

The estimate is a simple multiplicative chain, each factor is the conditional probability of the next step, so the overall risk is their product:

P(doom) = P(AGI) × P(unaligned) × P(gets power) × P(catastrophe) × P(no recovery)

This mirrors the structure of Joe Carlsmith's 2021 report Is Power-Seeking AI an Existential Risk?, which decomposed the question into a chain of premises and multiplied point estimates together. The model is deliberately transparent rather than precise: its value is in making explicit which judgment is driving your number.

Note: a strict product assumes the steps are independent, which is a simplification, in reality these judgments correlate. Treat the output as a reasoning aid, not a forecast.

Where researchers land

AI optimists (e.g. Yann LeCun)
Public statements, various<1%
Median ML researcher
AI Impacts survey of 2,700+ researchers, 2023~5%
Joe Carlsmith
Open Philanthropy report, 2021 (later revised up)~10%
Paul Christiano
Alignment researcher, public estimates~20%
Geoffrey Hinton
Nobel laureate; interviews, 2023-2025 (10-50%)~50%
Eliezer Yudkowsky
MIRI; If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies>95%

Understand the number

Whatever your P(doom), the case for action holds.

Even a low probability of an irreversible, civilization-scale outcome carries enormous expected cost. That is the whole argument for treating AI safety as a serious priority now. Get our briefings on the risk and what can be done about it.

More interactive tools

All tools →